Who can win the AORC title?

The BFGoodrich Motorsport Australia Off Road Championship (AORC) edges towards the final chapter of its 2022 campaign, with the Black Diamond Drilling Kalgoorlie Desert race hosting the season finale on 21-23 October.

In a season that has endured close battles throughout, the focus narrows oh six extremely talented drivers in the running to take out the title.

With Kalgoorlie to offer points and a half for the season finale, we take a look at who is still in contention to be crowned the Australian champion for the very first time.

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Jake Swinglehurst
Points: 114.5
Championship position: 1st

Despite not winning an event, Jake Swinglehurst’s consistency throughout the season has resulted in the Queenslander entering the Kalgoorlie Desert Race as the championship leader.

With 46.5 points up for grabs, Swinglehurst can automatically claim the title with a top five outright finish with his nearest contender Ryan Taylor eight and a half points behind.

If he were to finish outside of the top five positions, Taylor would need to finish at least five positions below for Swinglehurst to still take out the title race.

It would take a disastrous result from Jake and his co-driver, sister Kate Swinglehurst, to account for other drivers, but they will still have to be on top of their game to claim a maiden championship.

If Swinglehurst were to win, that would mean:
– He would be crowned champion.

Ryan Taylor
Points: 106 points
Championship position: 2nd

As the outright winner at the Pooncarie Desert Dash, Ryan Taylor has given himself the advantage if the result was to end in a countback, but lots of work still needs to be done if he wants to steal the title from under the nose of the Swinglehursts.

If Taylor were to go on to win the race, Swinglehurst will need to finish in sixth position or lower for any chance of taking out the title.

Likewise, if he is unable to take victory, finishing five places ahead of the championship leader will keep Taylor in contention.

Taylor will also be looking to stay ahead of rivals Brent Smoothy and Brett Comiskey at the Desert, as a great result for either one of the 2WD competitors could shake things up.

Although, if Taylor is able to claim a top 15 finish, then the challengers from behind shouldn’t be an issue.

If Taylor were to win, that would mean:
– Swinglehurst would need to finish 6th place of lower.

Ryan Taylor victorious the 2002 Pooncarie Desert Dash.
(Photo: Gears and Wheels Photography)

Brent Smoothy
Points: 85.5
Championship position: 3rd

Consistent performances throughout 2022 have left Brent Smoothy within distance of this year’s title, but it will require carnage at the front with uncharacteristic performances needed from Swinglehurst and Taylor to even stand a chance.

If Smoothy were able to take out his first win of the season, it would require both the championship contenders to finish 19th place or below – a feat which has not happened this season.

If other scenarios were to play out, Smoothy needs to finish in the top 11 placings to keep himself in contention.

If Smoothy were to win, that would mean:
– Taylor would need to finish 14th or lower.
– Swinglehurst would need to finish 19th or lower.

Brett Comiskey
Points: 83.5
Championship position: 4th

Currently sitting only two points behind Smoothy, a similar situation will play out for Brett Comiskey as a victory would still require a collapse at the front.

The result would rule out any challenge from Smoothy, but Swinglehurst would need to fall 21 places back and Taylor 16.

Any result in the top 10 can mathematically keep him in contention, but he would need to outscore Smoothy by at least two points and then push back Swinglehurst and Taylor even further.

If Comiskey were to win, that would mean:
– Smoothy cannot win.
– Taylor would need to finish 16th or lower.
– Swinglehurst would need to finish 21st or lower.

Mel Brandle
Points: 76
Championship position: 5th

A fourth-place effort at loveday will have to be repeated if Mel Brandle were to stand any chance in the title fight, as anything below fifth place will automatically rule him out.

While depending on an abundance of other results to go his way, there is still potential for Brandle to move his way up in the standings, but the challenge of Swinglehurst and Taylor makes the scenario near impossible.

If Brandle were to win, that would mean:
– Comiskey would have to finish 6th or lower.
– Smoothy would have to finish 7th or lower.
– Taylor would have to finish 10th or lower.
– Swinglehurst would have to finish 25th or lower.

Gary Turnbull
Points: 69.5
Championship position: 6th

As the lowest ranked driver to mathematically have a chance at the title, Turnbull will not only need one miracle, but five.

If Turnbull were to win the event, he would claim countback advantage over Swinglehurst and others, but the result would still require all drivers to finish in the bottom half of the field – including the championship leader finishing 30th or lower.

If Turnbull were to win, that would mean:
– Brandle would need to finish 5th or lower.
– Comiskey would need to finish 12th or lower.
– Smoothy would need to finish 11th or lower.
– Taylor would need to finish 25th or lower.
– Swinglehurst would need to finish with no points.